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4.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 18422, 2020 10 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-894412

ABSTRACT

We use an individual based model and national level epidemic simulations to estimate the medical costs of keeping the US economy open during COVID-19 pandemic under different counterfactual scenarios. We model an unmitigated scenario and 12 mitigation scenarios which differ in compliance behavior to social distancing strategies and in the duration of the stay-home order. Under each scenario we estimate the number of people who are likely to get infected and require medical attention, hospitalization, and ventilators. Given the per capita medical cost for each of these health states, we compute the total medical costs for each scenario and show the tradeoffs between deaths, costs, infections, compliance and the duration of stay-home order. We also consider the hospital bed capacity of each Hospital Referral Region (HRR) in the US to estimate the deficit in beds each HRR will likely encounter given the demand for hospital beds. We consider a case where HRRs share hospital beds among the neighboring HRRs during a surge in demand beyond the available beds and the impact it has in controlling additional deaths.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/economics , Health Care Costs/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics/economics , Pneumonia, Viral/economics , COVID-19 , Capacity Building/economics , Capacity Building/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Health Facilities/economics , Health Facilities/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Infection Control/economics , Infection Control/statistics & numerical data , Models, Statistical , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , United States
5.
PLoS One ; 15(10): e0241030, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-892384

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To analyze mortality, costs, residents and personnel characteristics, in six long-term care facilities (LTCF) during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Spain. DESIGN: Epidemiological study. SETTING: Six open LTCFs in Albacete (Spain). PARTICIPANTS: 198 residents and 190 workers from LTCF A were included, between 2020 March 6 and April 5. Epidemiological data were also collected from six LTCFs of Albacete for the same period of time, including 1,084 residents. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline demographic, clinical, functional, cognitive and nutritional variables were collected. 1-month and 3-month mortality was determined, excess mortality was calculated, and costs associated with the pandemics were analyzed. RESULTS: The pooled mortality rate for the first month and first three months of the outbreak were 15.3% and 28.0%, and the pooled excess mortality for these periods were 564% and 315% respectively. In facility A, the percentage of probable COVID-19 infected residents were 33.6%. Probable infected patients were older, frail, and with a worse functional situation than those without COVID-19. The most common symptoms were fever, cough and dyspnea. 25 residents were transferred to the emergency department, 21 were hospitalized, and 54 were moved to the facility medical unit. Mortality was higher upon male older residents, with worse functionality, and higher comorbidity. During the first month of the outbreak, 65 (24.6%) workers leaved, mainly with COVID-19 symptoms, and 69 new workers were contracted. The mean number of days of leave was 19.2. Costs associated with the COVID-19 in facility A were estimated at € 276,281/month, mostly caused by resident hospitalizations, leaves of workers, staff replacement, and interventions of healthcare professionals. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic posed residents at high mortality risk, mainly in those older, frail and with worse functional status. Personal and economic costs were high.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Health Facilities/statistics & numerical data , Long-Term Care , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Absenteeism , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19 , Comorbidity , Coronavirus Infections/economics , Cost of Illness , Cross Infection/economics , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Frail Elderly , Health Facilities/economics , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization/economics , Humans , Long-Term Care/economics , Male , Mortality , Occupational Diseases/epidemiology , Pandemics/economics , Pneumonia, Viral/economics , SARS-CoV-2 , Spain/epidemiology
6.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 103(5): 1762-1764, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-809306

ABSTRACT

The highly infectious nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus requires rigorous infection prevention and control (IPC) to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 within healthcare facilities, but in low-resource settings, the lack of water access creates a perfect storm for low-handwashing adherence, ineffective surface decontamination, and other environmental cleaning functions that are critical for IPC compliance. Data from the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme show that one in four healthcare facilities globally lacks a functional water source on premises (i.e., basic water service); in sub-Saharan Africa, half of all healthcare facilities have no basic water services. But even these data do not tell the whole story, other water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) assessments in low-resource healthcare facilities have shown the detrimental effects of seasonal or temporary water shortages, nonfunctional water infrastructure, and fluctuating water quality. The rapid spread of COVID-19 forces us to reexamine prevailing norms within national health systems around the importance of WASH for quality of health care, the prioritization of WASH in healthcare facility investments, and the need for focused, cross-sector leadership and collaboration between WASH and health professionals. What COVID-19 reveals about infection prevention in low-resource healthcare facilities is that we can no longer afford to "work around" WASH deficiencies. Basic WASH services are a fundamental prerequisite to compliance with the principles of IPC that are necessary to protect patients and healthcare workers in every setting.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Health Facilities , Infection Control/standards , Africa , Hand Disinfection/standards , Health Facilities/economics , Health Facilities/standards , Humans , Infection Control/economics , Sanitation/standards , Water Supply/standards
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